China’s economy grows at a 4.6% rate in the last quarter, falls short of the official 5% target
apOCT 2024
China's economy is expanding and on track to meet its 5% growth target. Despite a slower-than-expected third quarter, growth remains at 4.8% year-over-year. Beijing has taken adequate measures to boost consumer confidence. China can afford to expand at a little slower pace in Q4 than expected while still meeting its full-year growth objective.
The most recent Reuters poll revealed a significantly pessimistic outlook compared to the previous July survey, which predicted 5.0% growth in 2024. The assumption currently is that China will miss its aim, falling to 4.8% and maybe cooling further by 2025. The government is under pressure to implement new stimulus programs, while consumers are hoping for deflationary actions.
There is a 9% chance China's GDP will overtake the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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