The sentencing of Genaro García Luna marks a watershed moment in Mexico's fight against corruption. As Mexico's former security chief and architect of the nation's drug war strategy, his conviction exposes the profound betrayal at the highest levels of Mexican law enforcement. The case validates long-held suspicions about state collusion with drug cartels, potentially forcing Mexico to reckon with its costly and controversial war on drugs.
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There is a 5% chance the US will deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.