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Snapshot 5:Sat, Oct 12, 2024 11:17:27 PM GMT last edited by Adam

Trump Makes Gains in Election Betting Markets

Trump Makes Gains in Election Betting Markets

Above: Former US President Donald Trump departs following an address to the Detroit Economic Club at the Sound Board Theater in Detroit, Michigan, US, on Oct. 10, 2024. Image copyright: Sarah Rice/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

TheThis bettingsurge oddsin absolutelypro-Trump dobetting meanshould something,be andtaken Donaldwith Trumpa isgrain soaringof aheadsalt infor thesetwo marketsreasons. TheOne timingis ofthat thisit isn'tonly randomrecently atbecame all,legal asto thegamble marketson beganUS trendingelections, towardwhich Trumpmeans inpeople response toparticularly Harris'the recentwealthy speakingwho tours,wish mostto notablyprop herup terribletheir 60preferred Minutescandidate's interview.position Things willare onlybetting getwith worsezeal fornow. HarrisThis asartificial morebump Americansin hearTrump's herfavor onwill thelikely campaigncool trailoff before Nov. 5.

ThisThe surgebetting inodds pro-Trumpabsolutely bettingdo shouldmean besomething, takenand withDonald aTrump grainis ofsoaring saltahead forin twothese reasonsmarkets. OneThe istiming thatof itthis onlyisn't recentlyrandom becameat legalall, toas gamblethe onmarkets USbegan elections,trending whichtoward meansTrump peoplein response particularlyto theHarris' wealthyrecent whospeaking wishtours, tomost propnotably upher theirterrible preferred60 candidate'sMinutes positioninterview. Things arewill bettingonly withget zealworse now.for ThisHarris artificialas bumpmore inAmericans Trump'shear favorher willon likelythe coolcampaign off before Novtrail. 5.

There'sThis surge in pro-Trump betting should be taken with a 54%grain chanceof salt for two reasons. One is that Kamalait Harrisonly willrecently winbecame thelegal to gamble on US presidential electionelections, accordingwhich tomeans people — particularly the Metaculuswealthy predictionwho communitywish to prop up their preferred candidate's position — are betting with zeal now. This artificial bump in Trump's favor will likely cool off before Nov. 5.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 54% chance that Kamala Harris will win the US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



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