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Snapshot 5:Sat, Oct 12, 2024 11:17:27 PM GMT last edited by Adam

Trump Makes Gains in Election Betting Markets

Trump Makes Gains in Election Betting Markets

Above: Former US President Donald Trump departs following an address to the Detroit Economic Club at the Sound Board Theater in Detroit, Michigan, US, on Oct. 10, 2024. Image copyright: Sarah Rice/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Facts

  • According to election betting markets, former Pres. Donald Trump is predicted to win the US 2024 presidential election by an average margin of 53.2%-45.8% against his Democratic opponent, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris.

  • Part of Trump's recent rise in betting predictions, which has seen a 5% average jump for the former president in the past week and a 5% drop for Harris, comes from the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, which has Trump winning 55.8%-43.5%.

  • On Thursday, other platforms such as Sky Bet, William Hill, and 888.sport gave Trump 55.6% odds of winning, alongside 57.1% odds on the platform Unibet. This is up from Trump's 52.4% odds on all four of those platforms on Oct. 2.

The Spin

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Metaculus Prediction



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