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Snapshot 1:Thu, Oct 10, 2024 7:36:53 PM GMT last edited by Brian

Trump Polls Ahead in Florida, Harris in National Polls

Above: (L-R) Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, greets Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump as they joined family and friends at Ground Zero honoring the 23rd anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks. Image credit: Michael M. Santiago/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Kamala Harris only has a slight lead nationally, which means she's heading toward defeat if these swing state polls are accurate. As for anyone who balks at these numbers, they're coming form the most trusted sources — internal Democratic Party polls — which means the Harris campaign is terrified and reaching out for help.

A slight shift in a few polls is not a worry for Kamala Harris. Just a couple weeks ago she was leading in all but one swing state, and she was even gaining ground on the issue of who would govern better on immigration and the economy. Indepependent voters are going to decide this election, and Trump's personality will only continue to alienate the voters he needs most.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 54% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0