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Snapshot 1:Thu, Oct 10, 2024 7:35:02 PM GMT last edited by Brian

Trump Polls Ahead in Florida, Harris in National Polls

Above: (L-R) Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, greets Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump as they joined family and friends at Ground Zero honoring the 23rd anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks. Image copyright: Michael M. Santiago/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • In a new Marist poll, Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump leads Democrat Kamala Harris in the state of Florida 51%-47%, though Harris leads among Florida independent voters 55%-41%.

  • This comes as a recent New York Times/Sienna College poll shows Trump ahead 55%-41% in Florida and 50%-44% in Texas, which hold a combined 70 electoral college votes. Meanwhile, the poll puts Harris ahead nationally 49%-46%.

  • Elsewhere in the country, an Emerson College poll places Trump ahead in Arizona 49%-47%), Georgia (49%-48%), North Carolina (49%-48%), and Pennsylvania (49%-48%), with Harris ahead in Nevada (48%-47%) and tied in Michigan and Wisconsin.


The Spin

Kamala Harris only has a slight lead nationally, which means she's heading toward defeat if these swing state polls are accurate. As for anyone who balks at these numbers, they're coming form the most trusted sources — internal Democratic Party polls — which means the Harris campaign is terrified and reaching out for help.


A slight shift in a few polls is not a worry for Kamala Harris. Just a couple weeks ago she was leading in all but one swing state, and she was even gaining ground on the issue of who would govern better on immigration and the economy. Indepependent voters are going to decide this election, and Trump's personality will only continue to alienate the voters he needs most.



Metaculus Prediction





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