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‘A Great Error’: How Biden Used a Budgetary Gimmick To Score a Pre-Election Political Win

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New Treasury Department Data Should Be a Cause for Alarm

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"I will do everything in my power to unite the Democratic Party... to defeat Donald Trump... And together, we will win."

"This is a race Democrats can and must win."

"If the Democrats can be unified... then they have a good chance to win in November."

"I’d be very wary and a bit cautious on assuming that Trump is just going to sail to victory."

"Donald Trump’s hopes of claiming the White House just went from near certain to extremely uncertain" now Biden has dropped out.

"This kind of chaos this close to Election Day means Trump is going to win."

"It doesn’t matter whom the Democrats pick... Donald Trump will win in November."

"Donald Trump is now the de facto president."

"If the 2024 presidential election is a race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris then Trump will win, every time, and most likely win easily."

"Harris will be easier to beat than Joe Biden would have been."

Who Will Win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

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When Will the US Federal Reserve Drop Interest Rates?

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) released a study on Monday predicting that both former Pres. Donald Trump and Vice Pres. Kamala Harris's policy proposals would increase US national debt.

BBC News

If fully implemented, the CRFB estimates Trump's campaign pledges would raise the national debt by $7.5T whilst Harris's would add $3.5T over a ten-year period. Currently, federal debt sits at over $35T.

The Washington Post

New York Post

In the 34-page fiscal assessment estimates a Trump administration would see $2.7T in tariff revenues but over $9.2T lost in tax cuts amongst other measures. In contrast, Harris would see $4.6T in tax cuts in comparison to $4T in tax rises for corporations and wealthy individuals.

US News & World Report

Both statistics are a 'central' estimate by the CRFB, who comment the estimates come with 'a wide range of uncertainty.' The committee projects Trump's policies could add between $1.5T-$15.2T to the country's debt, whilst Harris's plans could potentially add between $0-$8.10T.

Crfb

A separate analysis by The Wharton school at University of Pennsylvania suggests (including economic feedback effects) Harris's policies would increase debt by $2T over ten years compared to an increase of $4.1T under Trump.

Newsweek

Both campaigns criticized the CRFB report. A Harris official said the Vice Pres.'s policies were fully-financed and would lower debt. Meanwhile, a Trump senior advisor accused the CRFB of bias because it had opposed Trump's 2017 tax cuts and supported Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.

Washington Free Beacon #1

Townhall #1

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan organization, released a study on Monday predicting that Donald Trump's campaign proposals would double the amount of the US national debt over ten years compared to Kamala Harris's proposals.

BBC News #

Though both candidates' policies would result in trillions of dollars in extra borrowing if implemented, Trump's campaign pledges would raise the rapidly increasing national debt by $7.5 trillion; Harris's would add $3.5 trillion.

The Washington Post #

The new research may disappoint both candidates, as VP Harris's team claims that increasing taxes on companies and the wealthiest will fully balance her middle class and housing initiatives.

US News & World Report #

In the 34-page fiscal watchdog assessment, former President Trump's plans might add $7.5T to the debt and possibly as much as $15.2T. However, Trump claims his growth will be so high that the deficit won't matter.

The CRFB admits that their estimates are unclear and rest on a number of assumptions since neither candidate has presented specific plans.

Both campaigns targeted the CRFB report. A Harris official said her fully financed policies will lower the deficit, not increase it. A Trump senior advisor criticized the report, stating the CRFB was biased because it had opposed Trump's 2017 tax cuts and openly supported Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.

The growing national debt is a significant concern as it could hinder economic growth, increase interest rates and payments, weaken national security, restrict policy choices, and raise the risk of a fiscal crisis. Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are expected to further increase deficits and debt beyond current projections. However, Donald Trump is likely to increase the deficit by a larger margin than Harris.

Crfb #

The Fiscal Impact of the Harris and Trump Campaign Plans-Mon, 10/07/2024 - 12:00

Vice President Kamala Harris' economic plan would help the middle class and strengthen America by decreasing the cost of basic necessities such as health care, housing, and groceries, as well as slashing taxes for over 100 million working and middle-class Americans. Raising taxes on companies and the rich completely funds Harris's initiatives.

CBC #

Trudeau government was warned two years ago of foreign interference threat, inquiry hears

A second Trump administration will reverse the worst inflation crisis in 40 years, which the Biden administration's irresponsible economic policy exacerbated. Trump's plan is to defeat inflation and restore prices. Republicans want to make the Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent to boost economic growth for all. They plan to eliminate tip taxes for millions of restaurant and hospitality workers and cut taxes further. The GOP wants to make America stronger, more resilient, and more prosperous.

The American Presidency Project

The American Presidency Project #

There is a 50% chance the US national debt will reach $50 trillion by November 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Metaculus2

When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?

US Election: Trump v. Harris Pledges

US Election Issue: Economy

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US debt would increase under Harris and soar under Trump - study

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Multiple analyses have reached the same opinion that Harris's policy proposals will do a better job at handling America's debt than Donald Trump. Whilst there's a chance that a Harris administration would prevent national debt from growing whatsoever, Trump risks running up a $15T bill if his pro-tariff anti-tax agenda doesn't go to plan.

Fortune

Trump plan could add $7.5 trillion to national debt: analysis

Harris's policies pledges are nothing but vacuous capitalist buzzwords intended to hide her debt-inducing Marxist agenda. Democrat plans to raid the wallets of the wealthy will barely put a dent in the national deficit, whilst calls for taxing unrealized capital gains and everyday price controls are economically insane. Harris cannot be trusted to control the American economy.

The Washington Examiner

The Kamala Harris economic plan is a disaster, wrapped in a calamity

Policy deficit estimates are extremely inaccurate, lacking any credible certainty over the future. These predictions should not be treated seriously, with the CRFB's range of potential estimates laughably broad and practically useless.

Los Angeles Times

Column: A conservative think tank says Trump policies would crater the economy — but it’s being kind

Study: US Debt Would Increase $7.5T Under Trump, $3.5T Under Harris

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Study: US Debt Would Increase $7.5T Under Trump, $3.5T Under Harris

Study: US debtDebt wouldWould increaseIncrease under$7.5T HarrisUnder andTrump, soar$3.5T underUnder Trump - studyHarris

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Study: US Debt Would Increase $7.5T Under Trump, $3.5T Under Harris

Study: US debtDebt wouldWould increaseIncrease under$7.5T HarrisUnder andTrump, soar$3.5T underUnder Trump - studyHarris

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

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Goodwin

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Go Deeper

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