Polls: Harris Leading Trump Nationwide, Virtual Tie in Swing States
Polls: Harris Leading Trump Nationwide, Virtual Tie in Swing States
The Facts
A string of national polls released this week show Democratic candidate Vice Pres. Kamala Harris ahead of her Republican opponent, former Pres. Donald Trump, with polling averages indicating a two-to-three-point lead nationally.
Two separate polls released on Thursday found that Harris has a two-point lead over Trump in the race for the White House — 50% to 48% according to Emerson College, and 50.7% to 49.3% according to Activote.
The Spin
Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so these latest results are actually very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.
Given that Harris has consistently been ahead of Trump in polls, Republicans have resorted to the fact that support for Trump was underestimated in the previous election cycles. One should not expect them to be inaccurate again though, as pollsters have worked to improve their methodologies.
