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Snapshot 2:Thu, Sep 26, 2024 7:51:27 PM GMT last edited by Brian

Japan warship sails through Taiwan Strait

Japan warship sails through Taiwan Strait

Above: Three military boats from Taiwan's Amphibious Reconnaissance and Patrol Unit patrol the Matsu Islands with a view of China's Fujian province in the background on April 9, 2023. Image copyright: Yan Zhao/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

China's military has been sailing through and flying over the Taiwan straight for months, antagonizing both neighboring countries like Japan and the Philippines, and allies like Australia. Not only is Beijing attempting to control the sovereign state of Taiwan, but also the internationally recognized waterways upon which many countries rely. If Beijin continues to flex its military might in the region, Western navies will respond in kind.

The Western establishment, directed by neoconservatives in the US with the help of its Asian allies, is trying to turn the South China Sea region into another NATO-like military alliance. To accomplish this, just as it did to Yugoslavia, Kosovo, and Serbia, it seems Western militaries are preparing to invade the region, risking an all-out war with China. US allies in Asia and Europe must stop taking marching orders from Washington before it's too late.

Metaculus Prediction

If the US says it will or will not use nukes to defend Taiwan, the chance a US-China war before 2035 is 4% and 5%, respectively, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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