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Democracy NowSEP 2024
Marist Poll: Trump, Harris Virtually Tied in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina
Marist Poll: Trump, Harris Virtually Tied in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina
Above: Democratic presidential candidate, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, and Republican presidential candidate, former Pres. Donald Trump, shake hands ahead of the presidential debate at National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, PA on Sept. 10, 2024. Image copyright: Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images
The Spin
This set of polls is big for Kamala Harris. Let alone the less likely decisive state of Arizona, shewho may flip North Carolina blue for the first time since Obama won there in 2008. andShe is pollingalso greatshowing alsopromise in Georgia — the battleground state where Trump has itshis best results.
Polls have underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so the latest results in key Sun Belt battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 55% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
The Controversies
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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.17.0