Versions :<12345678Live>
Snapshot 5:Thu, Sep 26, 2024 8:06:55 PM GMT last edited by KateHennig

Marist Poll: Trump, Harris Virtually Tied in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina

Marist Poll: Trump, Harris Virtually Tied in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina

Above: Democratic presidential candidate, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, and Republican presidential candidate, former Pres. Donald Trump, shake hands ahead of the presidential debate at National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, PA on Sept. 10, 2024. Image copyright: *** GETTY *** Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The Spin

This set of polls is big for Kamala Harris. LetDespite aloneher standing in the less likely decisive state of Arizona, she may flip North Carolina blue for the first time since Obama won there in 2008. andShe is pollingalso greatshowing alsopromise in Georgia — the battleground state where Trump has itshis best results.

Polls have underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so the latest results in key Sun Belt battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 55% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



Go Deeper


Articles on this story

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Sign Up!
Sign Up Now!