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DemPolls have underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so the latest results in key Sun Belt battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.
There's a 55% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.