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Snapshot 4:Thu, Sep 26, 2024 7:29:59 PM GMT last edited by JoseMoura

Marist Poll: Trump, Harris Virtually Tied in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina

Marist Poll: Trump, Harris Virtually Tied in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina

Above: Democratic presidential candidate, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, and Republican presidential candidate, former Pres. Donald Trump, shake hands ahead of the presidential debate at National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, PA on Sept. 10, 2024. Image copyright: *** GETTY *** Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The Spin

PollsThis haveset underestimatedof supportpolls foris Trumpbig bothfor inKamala 2016Harris. andLet 2020,alone so the latestless resultslikely indecisive keystate Sunof BeltArizona, battlegroundshe statesmay areflip veryNorth positiveCarolina blue for the Republicanfirst ticket.time Comparedsince toObama previouswon cycles,there thisin 2008 and is Trump'spolling bestgreat chancealso toin winGeorgia by athe landslidebattleground state andwhere evenTrump tohas secureits thebest popular voteresults.

DemPolls have underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so the latest results in key Sun Belt battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 55% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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