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Harris shows some gains and economic views brighten a bit — CBS News poll

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Metaculus

"I will do everything in my power to unite the Democratic Party... to defeat Donald Trump... And together, we will win."

"This is a race Democrats can and must win."

"If the Democrats can be unified... then they have a good chance to win in November."

"I’d be very wary and a bit cautious on assuming that Trump is just going to sail to victory."

"Donald Trump’s hopes of claiming the White House just went from near certain to extremely uncertain" now Biden has dropped out.

"This kind of chaos this close to Election Day means Trump is going to win."

"It doesn’t matter whom the Democrats pick... Donald Trump will win in November."

"Donald Trump is now the de facto president."

"If the 2024 presidential election is a race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris then Trump will win, every time, and most likely win easily."

"Harris will be easier to beat than Joe Biden would have been."

Who Will Win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

A Gallup report released this week said that nearly all measures of the political environment for the 2024 US presidential election favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.

Gallup.com

The Hill

This comes as 1,007 US adults were polled between Sept. 3 to 15 about 10 indicators that either have moderate to strong links to past presidential elections outcomes or are related to current perceptions of the two parties.

The Miami Herald

Those include party ID and leaning and which party is better able to handle most pressing issue, which have been strongly connected to previous outcomes. Republicans beats Democrats in both — 48% to 45% and 46% to 41%, respectively.

The poll further found that economic confidence, national satisfaction and presidential job approval are low, that most Americans want the government to do less, and that Republicans are seen as better able to keep America safe and prosperous.

The Washington Times

This comes as American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman, dubbed the "Nostradamus" of US presidential elections, used his "Keys to the White House" method to predict earlier this month that Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump.

Verity

As of Tuesday, ABC's FiveThirtyEight put Harris' chances of winning at 57%. According to the RealClear poll averages with "no toss-up states," Harris would win 276 Electoral College votes to Trump's 262 if the election were held last week.

RealClear Polling

FiveThirtyEight

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US Electoral System Overview

US Presidential Election 2024 Overview

US Election: Trump v. Harris Pledges

*** GETTY *** Win McNamee/Getty Images

Poll: 2024 Election Environment Favors Republicans

Politics

Electoral college

United States of America

Gallup shocker: GOP owns nine of 10 issues, election is Trump’s ‘to lose’

The Washington Post

More voters expect Harris to win. Here’s why that could actually matter.

There's a 56% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Poll: 2024 Election Environment Favors Republicans

Poll: 2024 Election Environment Favors Republicans

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Harris

Clinton

Okun

Myers

Sabur

Sharma

Andrews

Mills

Goodwin

Trump

Go Deeper

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Poll: 2024 Election Environment Favors Republicans

Poll: 2024 Election Environment Favors Republicans

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Harris

Clinton

Okun

Myers

Sabur

Sharma

Andrews

Mills

Goodwin

Trump

Go Deeper

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