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Snapshot 4:Fri, Sep 20, 2024 7:10:45 PM GMT last edited by KateHennig

Report: US Remains Unconvinced on Ukraine's Possible Use of Long-Range Weapons in Russia

Report: US Remains Unconvinced on Ukraine's Possible Use of Long-Range Weapons in Russia

Above: US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (L) and Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at NATO headquarters in Brussels on October 11, 2023. Image copyright: Olivier Matthys/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Because of current restrictions on long-range weapons, Russia simply moves its weapons out of range, hampering Ukraine's ability to put any pressure on its military. Ukraine has waited too long to receive these permissions.

Should NATO countries lift restrictions and allow their long-range weapons to strike Russia, RussiaMoscow will have no choice but to see this as NATO's direct involvement in the war and respond accordingly. This would be a fundamental escalation of the conflict — the West needs to tread carefully.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 20% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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