Colombia agrees with ELN rebel group to extend truce
Al JazeeraFEB 2024
Unlike past peace processes, Petro's ambitious Total Peace sought to finally bring the country's decades-long armed conflict to an end, ensuring that guerrillas would not be persecuted once demobilized and disarmed. That talks with the ELN have now been called off doesn't discredit the plan, as there has been success in talks with other groups.
Total Peace was always a failure waiting to happen, as there were no incentives to stop armed groups continuing to expand their territorial control. It's certain that Bogotá did sign cease-fires with some guerrilla groups, but the truth is that violence has risen under Petro.
ThereUnlike past peace processes, Petro's aambitious 10%Total chancePeace thatsought Colombiato willfinally experiencebring athe civilcountry's wardecades-long beforearmed 2036conflict to an end, accordingensuring tothat guerrillas would not be persecuted once demobilized and disarmed. That talks with the MetaculusELN predictionhave communitynow been called off doesn't discredit the plan, as there has been success in talks with other groups.
Total Peace was always a failure waiting to happen, as there were no incentives to stop armed groups continuing to expand their territorial control. It's certain that Bogotá did sign cease-fires with some guerrilla groups, but the truth is that violence has risen under Petro.
There's a 10% chance that Colombia will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.