Versions :<1234567Live>
Snapshot 4:Thu, Sep 19, 2024 10:51:33 AM GMT last edited by JoseMoura

Colombia Suspends Peace Talks With ELN Guerrilla After Attack on Army Base

Colombia Suspends Peace Talks With ELN Guerrilla After Attack on Army Base

Above: Soldiers stand guard as an ambulance transports a soldier injured in an attack attributed to ELN guerrillas in Arauca, Colombia, on September 17, 2024. Image copyright: *** GETTY *** Daniel Martinez/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Colombia announced on Wednesday that peace talks with the leftist guerrilla National Liberation Army (ELN) have been put on hold until the rebel group provides an "unequivocal demonstration of peace."

  • This comes as the country's president, Gustavo Petro, blamed the Maoist group for an explosives attack on a military base in the department of Arauca, near Venezuela, that left two soldiers dead and 27 others injured on Tuesday.


The Spin

Unlike past peace processes, Petro's ambitious "totalTotal peace"Peace sought to finally bring the country's decades-long armed conflict to an end ensuring that guerrillas would not be persecuted once demobilized and disarmed. That talks with the ELN have now been called off doesn't discredit the plan, as there has been success in talks with other groups.

RTotal Peace was always a failure waiting to happen as armed groups had no incentives not to continue expanding their territorial control — and these latest developments have proven exactly that. It's certain that Bogotá did sign cease-fires with some guerrilla groups, but the truth is that violence has rather risen under Petro.


Metaculus Prediction


Sign up to our daily newsletter