Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

Jake Sullivan

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian

Rajan Menon

Barbara Slavin

Hussein Ibish

Bashir Saade

Michael DiMino

Raz Zimmt

Joost Hiltermann

Arash Reisinezhad

Gary Samore

Negar Mortazavi

Djavad Salehi-Isfahani

Sinan Ülgen

Comfort Ero

Karim Mezran

Nicola Pedde

Tor Wennesland

Hasnain Kazim

Mark Montgomery

Alex Vatanka

Fabrice Balanche

Metaculus

"Tehran will not send its military into the war zone to help Hamas."

"There are good reasons to believe that Iran has decided not to enter the conflict directly."

"The likelihood of an expanded regional war... is low."

"[T]he risk of direct US involvement in the [Israel-Hamas war]... is higher than most people realize."

Despite no country wanting a regional conflict, "each country acts in such a way that exponentially increases its likelihood."

"[D]evelopments on the ground have the potential to escalate quickly, making the unthinkable [a major Middle East war] unavoidable."

The Israel-Hamas war "raises the very real risk of a catastrophic regional conflagration."

"[T]he risk of an expansion of this conflict is real, very, very real and extremely dangerous."

“Due to the expansion of the intensity of the war against Gaza’s civilian residents, expansion of the scope of the war has become inevitable.”

“Everything is in place for a cascading series of events that will culminate in Israel attacking Iran.”

Will the Israel-Gaza War Lead to Regional Escalation?

Joe Biden

Benjamin Netanyahu

Mark Regev

Antony Blinken

Yoav Gallant

Benny Gantz

Josep Borrell

John Kirby

Kal Raustiala

Riyad al-Malki

Khalil Shikaki

Nabil Abu Rudeineh

Nadav Eyal

David Shimoni

Ursula von der Leyen

Annalena Baerbock

Brian Katulis

Dennis A. Ross

Osama Hamdan

Naftali Bennett

Abdalrahim Alfarra

Who Will Control the Gaza Strip After the Israel-Gaza War?

For the first time under Pres. Joe Biden's administration, the US has granted Egypt its full allocation of $1.3B in military aid for this year amid the Gaza war.

Reuters

Washington Wednesday announced the reversal of a policy that had diverted over $300M from Egypt's aid in the past three years citing its human rights record.

wapo

On Wednesday, the US government notified the Congress of releasing $320M, including the $95M contingent upon Egypt's progress on human rights.

The State Department reportedly said the waiver would help advance regional peace, finalize a ceasefire deal in Gaza, and bring the Israeli hostages home.

Al Jazeera

The waiver comes reportedly amid the US's dependence on Egypt to bring about an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza and a subsequent plan for the territory.

Human rights groups have, meanwhile, reported political arrests (2,278) overtaking the number of releases (970) in the past year under Pres. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

John Moore/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

US Clears $1.3B Egypt Military Aid Despite Rights Concerns

Egypt

Military

Freedom & human rights

United States of America

aljazeera

barrons

encyclopediabritannica

history

humanrightswatch

israelforeverfoundation

ocha

ochaopt

reliefweb

theheritagefoundation

thestrategybridge

ynet

The Israel-Palestine Conflict

Ukraine

troops

abcnews

Breitbart

brookings

cato

chronicles

councilonforeignrelations

democrats

donaldj.trump

donaldjtrump

gallup.com

Guardian

Independent

jpost

justsecurity

Newsweek

nypost

nytimes

pjmedia

rawstory

responsiblestatecraft

state

the-white-house

theamericanpresidencyproject

thewhitehouse

Townhall

u.s.departmentofdefense

unitednationspopulationfund

US Election Issue: Israel-Gaza War

US Clears $1.3B Egypt Military Aid Despite Rights Concerns

The Controversies

Slavin

Salehi-Isfahani

Reisinezhad

DiMino

Mezran

Mortazavi

Ülgen

Wennesland

Amir-Abdollahian

Ibish

Go Deeper

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

US Clears $1.3B Egypt Military Aid Despite Rights Concerns

The Controversies

Slavin

Salehi-Isfahani

Reisinezhad

DiMino

Mezran

Mortazavi

Ülgen

Wennesland

Amir-Abdollahian

Ibish

Go Deeper

Sign Up for Our Free NewslettersSign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters