Israel is under attack as Iran's axis of evil conducts a multi-front war on Israel. The heinous Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre was just the start, with Hezbollah and the Houthis following suit. To make things worse, this rising violence has also encouraged lone-wolf terrorists and terrorist groups in the West Bank and elsewhere to carry out deadly attacks.
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There is a 5% chance an Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days will be agreed to before November 5th, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.