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Snapshot 12:Tue, Sep 10, 2024 4:44:26 PM GMT last edited by Eric

Poll: Harris, Trump Deadlocked as Debate Nears

Poll: Harris, Trump Deadlocked as Debate Nears

Above: ABC News signage is installed in the media file center inside the Pennsylvania Convention Center one day before the presidential debate on Sept. 9, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Image copyright: Chip Somodevilla/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • According to a national survey by the New York Times and Siena College, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are polling "neck and neck" less than two months before election day.

  • A day before Harris' first televised debate against Trump in Pittsburg, Pa., the poll, which ran from Sept. 3-6, shows Trump leading Harris by one point, 48%-47% — well within the survey's three percentage point margin of error.The survey further showed that 28% of prospective voters said they still need to learn more about Harris before voting for her, compared to 9% who said the same for Trump.

  • The survey further showed that 28% of prospective voters said they still need to learn more about Harris before voting for her, compared to 9% who said the same for Trump.According to a national survey by the New York Times and Siena College, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are polling "neck and neck" less than two months before election day.


The Spin


The most obvious reason for this poll is that Harris' post-nomination honeymoon phase is over and the public is beginning to see her flaws as a candidate. As she braces for her first debate, she won't only deal with the fact that Trump is better than her on immigration and the economy, but that Trump is statistically likely to beat her on Election Day should he remain within a point or two in the polls.


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Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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