The most obvious reason for this poll is that Harris' post-nomination honeymoon phase is over and the public is beginning to see her incompetenceflaws as a candidate. As she braces for her first debate, she won't only deal with the fact that Trump is better than her on immigration and the economy, but that Trump is statistically likely to beat her on Election Day should he remain within a point or two amongwithin votersstriking distance in the polls.
Harris, as VP-turned-vice presidents likehave LBJhistorically have done in the past, has been forced to take heat for her boss's failureschallenges but receive nolittle credit for his successes. AlsoHarris like LBJ, she has an opportunity to show that she's is her own candidate with new and popular ideas. The American people no longer care about VP"Vice President Harris" — they're eager to hear Howhow Pres."President Harris" would uplift the country after defeating the bitterly partisandivisive and dangerous Trump campaign.
There is a 51% chance Vice President Kamala Harris will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.