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Snapshot 7:Mon, Sep 9, 2024 8:32:26 PM GMT last edited by Brian

Harris and Trump tied in latest US election polls, as Tuesday’s debate nears

Harris and Trump tied in latest US election polls, as Tuesday’s debate nears

Above: Emblems of the Republican Elephant and Democratic Donkey are positioned on the American flag. Image copyright: Marie Hickman / Editorial RF / via Getty Images***PLEASE REPLACE IMAGE***

The Facts

  • According to a national survey by the New York Times and Siena College, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are deadlocked less than two months before election day.

  • A day before Harris' first televised debate against Trump in Pittsburg, Pa., the poll, which ran from Sept. 3-6, shows Trump leading Harris by one point, 48%-47%.

  • The survey further showed that 28% of prospective voters still need to learn more about Harris before voting for her, compared to 9% who said the same for Trump.The survey further showed that 28% of prospective voters said they still need to learn more about Harris before voting for her, compared to 9% who said the same for Trump.


The Spin


The most obvious reason for this poll is that Harris' post-nomination honeymoon phase is over and the public is beginning to see her incompetence. As she braces for her first debate, she won't only deal with the fact that Trump is better than her on immigration and the economy, but that Trump is statistically likely to beat her should he remain within a point or two among voters.


Harris, as VP-turned-presidents like LBJ have done in the past, has been forced to take heat for her boss's failures but receive no credit for his successes. Also like LBJ, she has an opportunity to show that she is her own candidate with new and popular ideas. The American people no longer care about VP Harris—they're eager to hear How Pres. Harris would uplift the country after defeating the bitterly partisan Trump campaign.


Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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