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Tanker Carrying Russian Oil to China Attacked by Houthi Sea Drone

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Iran-Backed Houthis Attack More Ships, Celebrate Humiliating Joe Biden

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

Jake Sullivan

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian

Rajan Menon

Barbara Slavin

Hussein Ibish

Bashir Saade

Michael DiMino

Raz Zimmt

Joost Hiltermann

Arash Reisinezhad

Gary Samore

Negar Mortazavi

Djavad Salehi-Isfahani

Sinan Ülgen

Comfort Ero

Karim Mezran

Nicola Pedde

Tor Wennesland

Hasnain Kazim

Mark Montgomery

Alex Vatanka

Fabrice Balanche

Metaculus

"Tehran will not send its military into the war zone to help Hamas."

"There are good reasons to believe that Iran has decided not to enter the conflict directly."

"The likelihood of an expanded regional war... is low."

"[T]he risk of direct US involvement in the [Israel-Hamas war]... is higher than most people realize."

Despite no country wanting a regional conflict, "each country acts in such a way that exponentially increases its likelihood."

"[D]evelopments on the ground have the potential to escalate quickly, making the unthinkable [a major Middle East war] unavoidable."

The Israel-Hamas war "raises the very real risk of a catastrophic regional conflagration."

"[T]he risk of an expansion of this conflict is real, very, very real and extremely dangerous."

“Due to the expansion of the intensity of the war against Gaza’s civilian residents, expansion of the scope of the war has become inevitable.”

“Everything is in place for a cascading series of events that will culminate in Israel attacking Iran.”

Will the Israel-Gaza War Lead to Regional Escalation?

Joe Biden

Ebrahim Raisi

Ali Khamenei

Hassan Nasrallah

John Kirby

Michel Duclos

Nasser Kanaani

Danielle Pletka

Hossein Salami

Daniel Hagari

Richard Barrons

Iran's Permanent Mission to the UN

David Cameron

"Iran is often more talk than action, more threat than substance."

"Tehran is undoubtedly obliged to retaliate [for the attack on Iran's consulate in Damascus], but I think it will be of a symbolic nature, avoiding further escalation."

"It's going to be very difficult for Iran not to retaliate [for the attack on Iran's consulate in Demascus]."

The prospect of Iran attacking Israel is "still a viable threat."

"This cowardly crime [the attack on Iran's consulate in Demascus] will not go unanswered."

"We warn that no act by any enemy against our holy system will go unanswered."

"Be certain that Iran's response to the targeting of its Damascus consulate is inevitable."

Iran will attack Israel "sooner than later."

Will Iran Attack Israel?

On Thursday, Yemen's Houthi rebels posted footage of their fighters boarding and placing explosives on the Greek-flagged tanker Sounion, threatening the Red Sea with an oil leak. The Houthis continuously targeted the ship, forcing its abandonment.

As the bombs explode on the oil tanker, the Houthis, who receive support from Iran, chant their motto on the video: "God is the greatest; death to America; death to Israel; curse the Jews; victory to Islam."

The attack on the oil tanker marked the Houthis' most significant strike in weeks in their effort to disrupt the $1 trillion in goods that flow across the Red Sea each year during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

On August 21, the Houthis attacked the tanker Sounion, carrying 1 million barrels of oil, with small arms fire, missiles, and a drone boat, forcing the crew to evacuate the ship. A French destroyer rescued the crew and brought them to Djibouti.

Since the Gaza war began in October of last year, the Houthis have targeted over 80 vessels with missiles and drones, resulting in the deaths of four sailors and the capture of one ship. Subsequently, the Yemeni rebels sank another ship, the Tudor, after its crew abandoned it.

EuroNews

The Houthis had previously blocked crews from trying to reach the Sounion, but the US military has said that the Houthis may allow them to salvage it. Western countries and the UN have warned that an oil spill from the oil tanker could destroy coral reefs and wildlife in the Red Sea, although there are no reports of any leaks.

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The Israel-Palestine Conflict

The Yemen Crisis

Houthi video shows the Yemeni rebels planted bombs on tanker now threatening Red Sea oil spill

Houthi video shows the Yemeni rebels planted bombs on tanker now threatening Red Sea oil spill

Houthi video shows the Yemeni rebels planted bombs on tanker now threatening Red Sea oil spill

The Controversies

Slavin

Salehi-Isfahani

Reisinezhad

DiMino

Mezran

Mortazavi

Ülgen

Wennesland

Amir-Abdollahian

Ibish

Pletka

Duclos

Zimmt

Kirby

Raisi

Salami

Nasrallah

Biden

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Houthi video shows the Yemeni rebels planted bombs on tanker now threatening Red Sea oil spill

Houthi video shows the Yemeni rebels planted bombs on tanker now threatening Red Sea oil spill

The Controversies

Slavin

Salehi-Isfahani

Reisinezhad

DiMino

Mezran

Mortazavi

Ülgen

Wennesland

Amir-Abdollahian

Ibish

Pletka

Duclos

Zimmt

Kirby

Raisi

Salami

Nasrallah

Biden

Go Deeper

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