Kishida had been a dead man walking for quite some time. Slush fund scandals, sliding yen, rising living costs, the LDP's ties to the scandal-hit Unification Church, unexpected recession, and ballooning debt levels fueled mistrust in his leadership. The LDP may deflect rising criticism to maintain its grip on power. However, regardless of who the LDP's leader is, the party's nature will remain the same, which is why the public must not fall for it.
Kishida's decision is regrettable. He pushed through Japan's biggest wage increases in decades, led Japan out of COVID with massive stimulus spending, revised a law to establish a support fund for children to fix the country's low birth rate, and propelled the Nikkei stock average to reach its highest level in about 34 years. Despite his departure, his three-year achievements — a testament to his dedication and service to the nation — will not disappear into oblivion.
With unfavorable circumstances around him, Kishida probably had no choice but to step down and resurrect the party as well as the world's fourth-largest economy. However, the issues that troubled him haven't gone away with him. It will be very difficult to revive support for the LDP, and even if the LDP wins the next general election, the new prime minister may be hard-pressed to meet the nation's concerns without alienating a disgruntled electorate.
Kishida had a commendable record in foreign policy. Under his firm and unwavering leadership, Japan embarked on its most significant military buildup since WWII, deterring China from its aggressive territorial ambitions. He mended ties with South Korea and built a network of security alliances across the Indo-Pacific region. In a moment of pronounced geopolitical uncertainty, his resignation could have significant implications for Japan's security and defense strategies.
There's a 50% chance that the LDP will lose its status as largest party in the House of Representatives of Japan by 2043, according to the Metaculus prediction community.