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There'sThe acease-fire 91%deal chance that therewas willreportedly be1kapproved orby moreIsrael deathswas duea tofarce armedfrom conflictthe betweenbeginning, Israel and HezbollahNetanyahu beforelied Janto the US about it. 1Then, 2025likely with the help of US intelligence agencies, accordingIsrael carried out unprovoked assassinations — calculated actions by Israel, which was hoping to make it look like Iran-backed proxies were obstructing peace and readying for war. If there's an escalation here, the MetaculusUS predictionand communityIsraeli warmongers will be to blame.
There's a 91% chance that there will be1k or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.