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Snapshot 4:Thu, Aug 8, 2024 3:19:16 PM GMT last edited by Haakan

Hottest oceans in 400 years endanger Great Barrier Reef, scientists say

Hottest oceans in 400 years endanger Great Barrier Reef, scientists say

Above: Mangareva island's barrier reef separates the lagoon from the ocean on January 21, 2023, in the Gambier archipelago, Pacific Ocean. The calcium secretion creates the coral reef that separates the lagoon from the ocean. Image copyright: Alexis Rosenfeld / Contributor /

The Facts

  • A new study published in Nature on Thursday shows that water temperatures in and around Australia's Great Barrier Reef have reached their highest levels in the past 400 years during the last decade. If the warming continues, the largest living ecosystem on Earth may not survive.

  • According to the report, human-caused climate change is the most probable cause of warmer waters. Helen McGregor, one of the co-authors, expressed her extreme concern about the reef, referring to the temperature increases as "unprecedented."


The Spin

ThereThe isscientific aevidence 50%strongly chanceindicates globalthat warminghuman-induced willclimate bechange 2.88is degreesresponsible Celsiusfor bythe 2100increase in ocean temperatures, accordingposing an "existential threat" to the Metaculusplanet's predictionunique communitynatural wonder, the coral reefs. New data indicates that the oceans are currently experiencing the highest temperatures recorded in at least 407 years. The only way to preserve reefs is through rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Most scientists agree that climate change is the cause of rising ocean surface temperatures. However, this does not explain why there is a sudden heat surge now. Potential variables include El Nino, random weather events, and reduced sulfur emissions from ships. There is also a possibility that random chance plays a role. Chaotic weather systems may reduce ocean cloud cover, leading to an increase in solar radiation and ocean warming. To establish certainty, further research is required.


Metaculus Prediction



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