USA Today

Drone strike on Russian fleet halts festival in Crimea; Zelenskyy orders Donetsk evacuation: Live Ukraine updates

Zelenskyy calls for mass evacuations as fighting rages in Ukraine's east

Al Jazeera

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 158

Guardian

Ukrainian offensive forces Russia to bolster troops in occupied south

New York Post

One of Ukraine’s richest men killed after Russian missile hit his home

Newsweek

Russia 'Clearly in a Lot of Trouble' in Ukraine War: Security Expert

Wall Street Journal

Russia Pummels Ukraine’s Mykolaiv, Killing Top Businessman

Daily Kos

Ukraine Invasion Day 158: ground assaults and a bombed POW camp

Ukraine update: Russia reportedly pulls forces from occupied towns to rush troops to Kherson

Joe Biden

Liz Truss

Vladimir Putin

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Kamala Harris

Emmanuel Macron

Boris Johnson

Antony Blinken

William Burns

Lloyd Austin

Jake Sullivan

Victoria Nuland

Dmitry Peskov

Kyrylo Budanov

Sergei Ivanov

Michael Roth

Alexander Vindman

Jen Psaki

Alexander Fomin

Sergey Lavrov

Ivo Daalder

Fiona Hill

Jens Stoltenberg

Tod Wolters

Anders Åslund

Taras Kuzio

Andriy Zagorodnyuk

Sergei Ryabkov

Maria Zakharova

Robert Lansing Institute

The Institute for the Study of War

Harun Yilmaz

Max Bergmann

Ihor Romanenko

Metaculus

"Russia has never hatched, is not hatching and will never hatch any plans to attack anyone."

"These military exercises, drills, are purely defensive and are not a threat to any other country."

"We [Russians] learn from US newspapers that we will attack Ukraine."

"The geopolitical objective of Russia today is clearly not Ukraine."

"Right now, the people's biggest enemy is panic in our country [Ukraine]."

"There is a risk for a full-fledged invasion."

"We are talking about the real possibility of war in Europe."

"One way or another, [Putin] wants Ukraine neutralized."

Russia is looking for "an excuse to go in."

"[A]n invasion could be imminent, and it is highly likely."

"Russia may launch an attack on Ukraine on Saturday, February 19, 2022."

"As of this moment I'm convinced he's made the decision" and an assault could occur in the "coming days."

Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

Following days of increasing pressure on the Ukrainian frontlines, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — a US military think tank that tracks battlefield progress in the conflict — reported that Russia's military maneuvers since July 29 "are likely the manifestation of Russia's forecasted summer offensive."

Understandingwar

ISW said Tuesday that Russian forces had conducted five platoon- to battalion-sized mechanized assaults since July 29, and concluded this was probably Russia's offensive as: "Russian forces likely lack the wider operational capacity to mount a separate renewed offensive operation in Donetsk Oblast or elsewhere on the front this summer."

ISW also reported that, over the past day of fighting, Russia had made gains near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka and west of Donetsk city in the Donetsk region, as well gains to the west in the Zaporizhzhia region.

It comes as the daily briefing from Ukraine's Armed Forces continued to report a high number of combat clashes across the frontlines, with Russian efforts continuing to focus on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk fronts in Donetsk. Ukraine's military reported a total of 71 combat clashes there over the past day.

Ukrainska Pravda

Meanwhile, Ukraine's Air Force said Wednesday that it had repelled the largest Russian drone attack of this year, shooting down all 89 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), in addition to a single guided missile.

Coming as Ukraine's missile defenses were replenished by the US — alongside the delivery of other weapons that will soon include F-16 jets provided by third countries — military officials in Kyiv said it was the seventh major attack on the capital in July alone.

Independent

USA Today #1

NBC #1

Al Jazeera #1

Guardian #1

New York Post #1

Newsweek #1

Wall Street Journal #1

Daily Kos #1

Following days of increasing pressure on the Ukrainian frontlines, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — a US military think tank that tracks battlefield progress in the war — reported that Russia's military manoeuvres since July 29 "are likely the manifestation of Russia's forecasted summer offensive."

Understandingwar #

ISW said Tuesday that Russian forces conducted five platoon- to battalion-sized mechanized assaults since July 29 — concluding this was likely Russia's offensive as "Russian forces likely lack the wider operational capacity to mount a separate renewed offensive operation in Donetsk Oblast or elsewhere on the front this summer."

Over the past day of fighting, ISW reported that Russia had made gains near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka and west of Donetsk city in the Donetsk region, as well gains to the west in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Ukrainska Pravda #

Meanwhile, Ukraine's Air Force said Wednesday that it repelled the largest Russian drone attack of this year, shooting down all 89 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), in addition to a single guided missile.

Coming as Ukraine's missile defenses were replenished by the US — alongside the delivery of other weapons that will soon include arming Ukraine with F-16 jets from third countries — military officials in Kyiv said it was the seventh major attack on the capital in July alone.

Independent #

Due to manpower and materiel constraints, analysts said that Russia will not have the capacity to launch a new offensive after this attack. While this offensive is not expected to have any real results, Russia will likely have pulsating attacks in order to sell small gains to an audience at home.

Euromaidan Press

Euromaidan Press #

ISW: Russian military lacks operational capacity to maintain renewed summer offensive in Ukraine

Ukraine, alongside its Western backers, have demonstrated to Russia that they have no interest in peace. Therefore, Russia will continue with the objectives of its Special Military Operation.

TASS

TASS #

Kiev has no will for peace — Russian MFA about prospects for negotiations

There is a 27% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Metaculus #

Russia Expanded Territory in Ukraine in 2026?

Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Russia Launches Summer Offensive, Analysts Say

Due to manpower and materiel constraints, Russia will not have the capacity to launch a new offensive after this attack. While this development is not expected to deliver any real results, Russia will likely have pulsating attacks in order to sell small gains to an audience at home.

Ukraine, alongside its Western backers, has demonstrated to Russia that they have no interest in peace. Russia will continue with the objectives of its Special Military Operation, including this latest defensive set of maneuvers, to protect national security interests.

There is a 25% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Russia Launches Summer Offensive, Analysts Say

Russia Launches Summer Offensive, Analysts Say

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Peskov

Putin

Zakharova

Macron

Zelenskyy

Stoltenberg

Harris

Hill

Nuland

Truss

War

Biden

Articles on this story

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Russia Launches Summer Offensive, Analysts Say

Russia Launches Summer Offensive, Analysts Say

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Peskov

Putin

Zakharova

Macron

Zelenskyy

Stoltenberg

Harris

Hill

Nuland

Truss

War

Biden

Articles on this story

Sign Up for Our Free NewslettersSign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters