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Kamala Harris Becomes Betting Favorite for Democratic Nomination

Kamala Harris Becomes Betting Favorite for Democratic Nomination

Image copyright: Win McNamee/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images North America

The Facts

  • Vice President Kamala Harris is the betting favorite to become the Democratic nominee in the 2024 presidential election, according to multiple prediction market platforms.Vice President Kamala Harris is now the betting favorite to become the Democratic nominee in the 2024 presidential election, according to multiple prediction market platforms.

  • Harris’ odds of becoming the nominee surged on Thursday amid the Democratic Party’s widely publicized conundrum regarding the status of Pres. Joe Biden’s candidacy. Many prominent Democrats have called on the president to step down following his subpar debate performance last month.Harris' odds of becoming the nominee surged on Thursday amid the Democratic Party's widely publicized intrigue regarding the status of Pres. Joe Biden's candidacy. Many prominent Democrats have called on the president to step down following his debate performance last month.


The Spin

ThereJoe isBiden ahas 66%dedicated chancehis life to serving the American people, and Democrats appreciate everything he has meant to the party. However, the President’s age and signs of cognitive decline hurt the party’s chances of winning in November. Biden knows that Kamala Harris willis bemore thethan Democraticready nomineeto fortake the 2024reins USas Presidentialthe Electioncountry’s commander-in-chief, accordingand tomost Democrats agree. Harris has the Metaculusexperience predictionand communitybroad appeal to win this election, and she should be the nominee.

Democrats need to close ranks around Biden and give him their full support. With Trump surging in the polls, JD Vance selected for the GOP ticket, and Project 2025 lurking on the horizon, America's very democracy is at risk. The most effective approach is to praise Biden's numerous policy achievements, outline the dangers of Trumpism, and vigorously campaign as a united front.

While it’s clear that Joe Biden is physically and mentally incapable of performing the duties of the presidency, Kamala Harris is no sure bet to save the Democrats' sinking ship. Most opinion polls show that Americans have an unfavorable view of the vice president, and she performs even worse than Biden does against Trump in many polls. Even the left-leaning media was impressed by Trump's performance at the Republican National Convention. Whether it's Biden or Harris, the Democrats are toast.


Metaculus Prediction


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