The signs may point towards rapprochement, but Bahrain should remain skeptical. Not only does Iran constantly interfere in Bahrain's domestic affairs, but Tehran is also sheltering several wanted Bahraini opposition figures. In addition, Iran links the resumption of bilateral ties to the opposition's return to Bahrain and the release of suspicious Shiite prisoners. The Gulf kingdom should think twice about whether the restoration of relations with the Iranian regime is worth the price.
There is a 73% chance, that Iran will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus predicition community.
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