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Snapshot 4:Fri, Jun 14, 2024 8:37:22 PM GMT last edited by KateHennig

UK Election: YouGov Poll Shows Reform Ahead of Tories

UK Election: YouGov Poll Shows Reform Ahead of Tories

Above: Reform UK leader Nigel Farage arrives to speak at a press conference June 14, 2024. Image copyright: Carl Court/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • A new poll conducted by YouGov for The Times shows Nigel Farage’s Reform UK pulling ahead of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s ruling Conservatives, marking the first time the right-wing upstart party surpassed the Tories.

  • YouGov's latest poll, published on Thursday, shows Reform UK to be the second most popular amongst UK adults as found in data gathered between June 12-13. Responses in favor of the party (19%) sat a percentage point above the Conservative Party's 18%, and behind the Labour Party's 37%.


The Spin

Farage and Reform have surpassed the Tories as the main party on the British right, and this poll is just the beginning of a seismic political shift. After years of being let down by the milquetoast Conservatives, patriotic Brits are flocking to Reform’s common-sense message of limiting immigration and putting the UK first. The Tories are in deep trouble, and leaders, including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, have themselves to blame for betraying their constituents.

While many Brits have grown tired of the Tories after over a decade of rule, the answer does not light in a hard-right turn. Labour has been poised to win this year’s election for some time, and Reform’s recent polling rise shouldn't be considered a long-term indicator of sentiment. The political pendulum will always swing back and forth, and the Conservatives will only regain power by running as a center-right party.

Farage has completely upended the Tories like a human wrecking ball. His brand of politics is on the fringe, but he's exposing a major divide on the British right at the expense of a weak Conservative Party lacking in grassroots support. It remains to be seen how Reform will perform on Election Day, but the party’s rise could facilitate a massive majority for Labour.


Metaculus Prediction


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