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Snapshot 4:Wed, Jun 12, 2024 6:23:14 PM GMT last edited by NickBurk

FBI: Violent US Crime Dropped Sharply in Early 2024

FBI: Violent US Crime in The US Dropped SteeplySharply in Early 2024

Above: FBI, ATF and local police investigate an explosion at a FedEx facility in Schertz, Texas. Image copyright: Scott Olson/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Statistics released by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) purport that violent crime in the US dropped by more than 15% during the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

  • Statistics released by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) purport that violent crime across the US dropped by 15.2% during the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.


The Spin

These numbers only tell part of the story about crime in America, as they are based on voluntary reporting from police departments. The main issue in this country remains dismal arrest and prosecution records from progressive district attorney's offices, which leads to emboldened criminals and gamified statistics.

The perception of the GOP being "tough on crime" doesn't match the reality, as this steep drop reverses the spikes that occurred under the Trump administration. Trump's attacks on law enforcement agencies and his personal attempts to flout the law are a testament to his lack of care regarding law and order.

There's a 50%technical chanceissue that themust be accounted for when reporting US murdercrime ratestatistics. The FBI's transition to a new crime reporting system for local jurisdictions has led to major data gaps — including in 2030New willYork beCity 5and Los Angeles.4 perAccordingly, 100Kit's inhabitantsactually unclear if crime nationwide has gone up, accordinggone down, or stayed relatively the same. This data gap must be rectified in order to give the Metaculuspublic predictionthe communityinformation it deserves — and to defend against bad faith political arguments on both sides.


Metaculus Prediction


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