Rishi Sunak

Institute for Government

Grant Shapps

Kevan Jones

John Healey

Paul Johnson

Torsten Bell

Ben Zaranko

Full Fact

How Much Will the UK Increase Defense Spending By?

The Conservatives have launched their manifesto at Silverstone on Tuesday. Speaking at the event, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak claimed that while the UK had "been through a difficult time" his party contained "big ideas to make [the] country a better place to live."

BBC News

Within the manifesto, the party pledges a further two percentage point reduction to National Insurance by Apr. 2027, having already fallen from 12% to 8% from the beginning of the year. The Conservatives also promise to completely abolish the main rate of National Insurance for the self-employed by the end of the next parliamentary term.

public.conservatives.com

The manifesto also contains a commitment to build 1.6M homes within the next term, an increase to the Stamp Duty threshold from £300K ($382K) to £425K ($541K), and a new Help to Buy Scheme providing first-time buyers an equity loan of up to 20% for new builds. NHS spending is pledged to increase above the rate of inflation every year, while the Child Benefit system is intended to move from an individual to a household system.

The Tories have announced the intention to clarify the definition of sex within the Equality Act as biological, a guarantee of no new green levies or charges, as well as a commitment to not raise corporation tax, capital gains tax, income tax, or VAT.  The document also includes previously announced policies such as National Service, 2.5% GDP defense spending,  a smoking ban, and a migration cap.

The party's manifesto costings document claims that Conservative policies will cost approximately £1B ($1.3B) in 2025-26, while reducing the overall cost of borrowing in the period up to 2029-30 by over £2B ($2.6B).

The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has initially concluded that the Conservative manifesto contains approximately £17B ($22B) a year in tax cuts, and – amongst other reductions – a £12B ($15B) reduction in welfare spending, without further detail concerning the required £10-20B ($13-25B) spending cuts necessary following the March Budget.

Institute for Fiscal Studies

The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has initially concluded that the Conservative manifesto contains approximately £17B ($22B) a year in tax cuts, and – amongst other policies – a £12B ($15B) reduction in welfare spending. The manifesto is without further details concerning the estimated £10-20B ($13-25B) spending cuts necessary following March's budget.

BBC News #

public.conservatives.com #

Institute for Fiscal Studies #

UK Election: Conservatives Launch Party Manifesto

Sunak's manifesto launch will have renewed confidence that there is still hope for the Conservatives yet. The party's document is full of reasonable and compelling pledges that may leave Labour slightly more nervous than many may have expected. While some of the UK's deeper economic problems remain unsolved and ignored, it would be amiss to write off the Tories following Tuesday's surprising success.

The Telegraph

Rishi Sunak has surprised everyone, and proved there’s life in the Tory party yet

In a desperate attempt to avoid electoral wipeout, Sunak has once again attempted to the halt the Conservative Party's inevitable political decline by offering unfeasible and unfunded tax cuts. After over a decade of lies, it is unlikely anything that the Tories have announced will change the minds of a fed up British public.

The Mirror

Conservative Party manifesto 2024: Rishi Sunak's desperate election plans in full

There is a 99% chance that Labour will have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

UK Election: Conservatives Launch Party Manifesto

UK Election: Conservatives Launch Party Manifesto

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

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UK Election: Conservatives Launch Party Manifesto

UK Election: Conservatives Launch Party Manifesto

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

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