Israel's war against Hamas continues to worsen the nation's situation, leading to internal collapse. The current war cabinet prioritizes political survival over the country's welfare, resulting in irrational decisions. A cease-fire is essential to recover Israel's economy, international relations, and societal stability. What is critical to avoiding the country's implosion is the ouster of Israel's existing leadership.
Netanyahu's declining popularity and policies have drawn global criticism, yet Benny Gantz's replacing him is unlikely to significantly change Israel's Gaza policies. While Gantz might manage US ties better and be open to dialogue with Palestinian leaders, he is unlikely to push for a two-state solution, which he believes in but may lack the power of conviction to see through.
There's a 50% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be prime minister of Israel by March 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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