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Snapshot 5:Wed, May 29, 2024 2:26:16 PM GMT last edited by Vandita

South Africa Holds Landmark General Election

South Africa VotesHolds inLandmark General Election That Could Bring Biggest Shift Since 1994

Image credit: J. Countess/Contributor/Getty Images News via Gett Images

The Spin

While South Africa still faces majorsignificant challenges due to its apartheid history, the ANC has achieved a great deal. Under Ramaphosa, several economic reforms were implemented, and effective measures were taken to combat crime and corruption. Moreover, decisive action led to areduced reduction in power cuts and the revitalization of infrastructure and the construction industry. The ANC led South Africa out of apartheid and will deliver on the promise of the rainbow nation.

The ANC can no longer rest on the laurels of the past, while economic and social conditions are becoming unbearable for an ever -increasing number of South Africans. The country is on the brink of collapse due to the ANC's corruption, mismanagement, and abuse of power for the sake of personal and political gains. The people will hold the ANC toaccountable account for undermining the country's institutions and its future as a democratic and prosperous nation for over 30 years.

The ANC may lose its majority, but the decisive factor iswill going to be the extent of the losses. If the ANC falls just short of a majority, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) is seen as the most likely coalition partner; if it falls below 40%, a coalition of the ANC with the pro-business DA or the ultra-left EFF may be on the cards. All three scenarios pose their unique risks to social cohesion,; and whatever the outcome, South African democracy isfaces set to face unprecedented challenges.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 20% chance that the ANC will receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0