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Snapshot 3:Wed, May 29, 2024 11:19:42 AM GMT last edited by Kani

South Africa Votes in Election That Could Bring Biggest Shift Since 1994

South Africa Votes in Election That Could Bring Biggest Shift Since 1994

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The Facts

  • South Africans began voting on Wednesday in the most competitive election since the end of apartheid, with polls suggesting the ruling African National Congress (ANC) could lose its outright majority and end its 30-year political dominance.

  • Over 27M South Africans are registered to cast their votes at over 23K polling stations for the provincial assemblies in the country's nine provinces and for a new national parliament, which will then pick the next president.South Africans began voting on Wednesday in the most competitive election since the end of apartheid, with polls suggesting the ruling African National Congress (ANC) could lose its outright majority.


The Spin

While South Africa still faces major challenges due to its apartheid history, the ANC has achieved a great deal. Under Ramaphosa, several economic reforms were implemented and effective measures were taken to combat crime and corruption. Moreover, decisive action led to a reduction in power cuts and the revitalization of infrastructure and the construction industry. The ANC led South Africa out of apartheid and will deliver on the promise of the rainbow nation.

The ANC can no longer rest on the laurels of the past, while economic and social conditions are becoming unbearable for an ever increasing number of South Africans. The country is on the brink of collapse due to the ANC's corruption, mismanagement and abuse of power for the sake of personal and political gains. The people will hold the ANC to account for undermining the country's institutions and its future as a democratic and prosperous nation over 30 years.

ThereThe isANC amay 20%lose chanceits majority, thatbut the decisive factor is going to be the extent of the losses. If the ANC willfalls receivejust moreshort thanof 50%a majority, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) is seen as the most likely coalition partner; if it falls below 40%, a coalition of the voteANC inwith the 2024pro-business DA or the ultra-left EFF may be on the cards. All three scenarios pose their unique risks to social cohesion, and whatever the outcome, South African generaldemocracy electionl,is accordingset to theface Metaculusunprecedented prediction communitychallenges.


Metaculus Prediction


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