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Israel’s Knesset Passes Law Allowing Netanyahu to Shut Down Al Jazeera

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Metaculus

"Tehran will not send its military into the war zone to help Hamas."

"There are good reasons to believe that Iran has decided not to enter the conflict directly."

"The likelihood of an expanded regional war... is low."

"[T]he risk of direct US involvement in the [Israel-Hamas war]... is higher than most people realize."

Despite no country wanting a regional conflict, "each country acts in such a way that exponentially increases its likelihood."

"[D]evelopments on the ground have the potential to escalate quickly, making the unthinkable [a major Middle East war] unavoidable."

The Israel-Hamas war "raises the very real risk of a catastrophic regional conflagration."

"[T]he risk of an expansion of this conflict is real, very, very real and extremely dangerous."

“Due to the expansion of the intensity of the war against Gaza’s civilian residents, expansion of the scope of the war has become inevitable.”

“Everything is in place for a cascading series of events that will culminate in Israel attacking Iran.”

Will the Israel-Gaza War Lead to Regional Escalation?

Hours after seizing equipment belonging to the Associated Press (AP) on Tuesday, shutting down a live feed of the Gaza Strip which the news organisation provides to other outlets, Israel reversed the decision and returned the equipment following pressure from media freedom groups and US officials.

Hours after seizing a camera and broadcasting equipment belonging to the Associated Press on Tuesday, shutting down a live feed of the Gaza Strip, Israel reversed the decision and ordered their return.

Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi said he had reversed the decision because "the Ministry of Defense wishes to examine the matter of the broadcasts from these locations in Sderot regarding the risk to our forces."

BBC News

In taking the equipment, located in the Israeli city of Sderot near the Gaza border, Israeli officials accused AP of violating a newly passed media law by providing the images from the feed to Al Jazeera.

The Associated Press

Earlier in the month, the Israeli cabinet voted unanimously to shut down Qatar-based Al Jazeera's operations in Israel, as well as banning its website and broadcasts in the country. In doing so, the cabinet cited the new law that gave the Israeli government power to ban foreign media organisations if it deemed them to be a threat to national security.

Al Jazeera

The reversal comes allegedly under US pressure. Adrienne Watson, a US National Security Council spokeswoman, told CNN that the White House and the State Department had asked Israel to reverse the action, "which they have publicly committed to do."

In confiscating the equipment, located in the Israeli city of Sderot near the Gaza border, Israeli officials accused AP of violating a newly passed media law by providing the images from the feed to Al Jazeera.

Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the US National Security Council, told CNN: "As soon as we learned about the reports, the White House and the State Department immediately engaged with the Government of Israel at high levels to express our serious concern and ask them to reverse this action, which they have publicly committed to do."

Earlier in the month, the Israeli cabinet voted unanimously to shut down Qatar-based Al Jazeera's operations in Israel, citing the law that gives the Israeli government power to ban foreign media organizations it deems to be a threat to national security.

In announcing the reveral on the X platform, formerly Twitter, Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi said: "Since the Ministry of Defense wishes to examine the matter of the broadcasts from these locations in Sderot regarding the risk to our forces, I have now ordered to cancel the operation and return the equipment to the AP agency, until a different decision is made by the Ministry of Defense."

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The Associated Press #

Al Jazeera #4212

While the move to ban Al Jazeera was condemned by the UN and various press freedom groups, the ban remains in effect. Meanwhile, the reversal of policy on AP's equipment came after pressure from US officials.

BBC News #

AP's live images from a military zone broadcasts the movements of Israeli forces, thus putting these troops in danger. Nonetheless, the decision to seize the equipment has been reversed pending a fuller investigation from the Israaeli Ministry of Defense.

Israel National News

Israel National News #

Following uproar: Israel to return equipment confiscated from AP news agency

Israeli officials shot themselves in the foot by pursuing this wrong-headed decision. Such authoritarian actions, which resemble moves by states like Russia or North Korea, only work to degrade the image of Israel in the eyes of the foreign media.

The Forward

The Forward #

Israel made a terrible tactical blunder in targeting the AP — one it’s made many times before

There's a 68% chance that there will be 1K or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025, according to the Metaculus community prediction.

Metaculus2

Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?

Ahmad Hasaballah/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Israel Reverses Seizure of AP Equipment After US Pressure

Israel

Palestine

Armed conflict

United States of America

AP's live images from a military zone broadcast the movements of Israeli forces, thus putting these troops in danger. Nonetheless, the decision to seize the equipment has been reversed pending a fuller investigation from the Israeli Ministry of Defense.

Israel Returns Seized AP Equipment

Media

Freedom of press

Israel Returns Seized AP Equipment

Israel ReversesReturns SeizureSeized of AP Equipment After US Pressure

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Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

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Israel Returns Seized AP Equipment

Israel ReversesReturns SeizureSeized of AP Equipment After US Pressure

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Slavin

Salehi-Isfahani

Reisinezhad

DiMino

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Ülgen

Wennesland

Amir-Abdollahian

Ibish

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