Many in Taiwan, including opposition parties, urge Lai to avoid provoking China with secessionist policies. Observers fear increased crackdowns on pro-reunification activists and media manipulation. Analysts believe Lai's actions will be influenced by US-China competition, with both nations exerting pressure to prevent extreme provocations and maintain regional stability. If Lai persists, however, with his irresponsible anti-China stance, the People's Liberation Army is always ready to intervene.
China has tried various strategies to sway Taiwan, but Taiwanese voters continue to elect leaders it opposes. Pres. Lai Ching-te's Democratic Progressive Party emphasizes Taiwanese identity and skepticism toward China. Despite his winning only a plurality in the election, strong anti-unification sentiment prevails in the island. Beijing's tough stance and diminishing support for unification in Taiwan highlight the challenges to its unification goals.
Pres. Lai Ching-te faces a difficult task. He has refused to endorse the 1992 Consensus, a key agreement for Beijing. Lai must find ways to appease China while maintaining Taiwan's stance. However, China distrusts him due to his past pro-independence remarks. As US-China relations worsen, Taiwan's defiance grows. This escalating tension risks dangerous confrontations. Lai and global leaders must exercise restraint to avoid further instability.
There is a 30% chance China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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