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Snapshot 3:Mon, May 13, 2024 6:34:43 PM GMT last edited by JoseMoura

Spain: Socialists Eclipse Pro-Independence Parties in Catalonia Election

Spain: Socialists Eclipse Pro-Independence Parties in Catalonia Election

Image credit: [Please Replace]Javier Mostacero Carrera/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

TheSpain's Socialistssocialist maygovernment havehas wonushered thein battle,a butnew theyera willof shortlyrelations losebetween theCatalonia warand duethe torest nationalof discontentSpain, with theirthese appeasementelection policyresults towardsbeing Catalonianproof-positive separatists.that Thethe controversialpragmatic amnestyand billdiplomatic hasapproach beenof condemnedSánchez asis athe violationsoundest. ofBy meeting the ruleCatalonians ofin lawthe andmiddle, couldnationalist damagefervor trust in institutionsthe forregion yearshas todeclined, come.as EvenMadrid afterfor thisonce concession,proves Catalonianto hardlinersbe likea Puigdemontreceptive areear stillfor intenttheir on independenceconcerns, even ifin theythe takeface of thecondemnation rest of Spaintheir withbrave itamnesty law.

TheSocialists Socialistmay governmenthave haswon usheredthe inbattle, abut newthey erawill ofshortly relationslose betweenthe Cataloniawar andas thea restcoalition ofgovernment Spain,in withCatalonia theseseems electionto resultsbe beingpossible proof-positiveonly thatwith the pragmaticsupport andof diplomaticat approachleast ofone Sanchezsecessionist isparty. theDiscontent soundest.with Bytheir meetingappeasement thepolicy Catalonianstowards inCatalonian the middleseparatists, nationalistparticularly fervorwith in the regioncontroversial continuesamnesty to declinebill, ascan Madridonly foraggravate oncein provessuch toscenario. beFurthermore, aif receptiveJunts earfeels formarginalized theirin concerns,its evenown inpolitical thestronghold, faceit ofis condemnationlikely ofto theirpunish bravethe amnestycentral lawcoalition government.

The Catalonian dream of independence has not died, andespecially Illaas facesthis anoutcome uphillis battleall totoo formsimilar ato pro-unionthat government. The delicate balance of power in the regionnational iselections stackedthat againstallowed aSánchez Socialistto governmentsecure everanother forming,term withdespite the separatistconservative movementPeople's stillParty controllingemerging aas largethe amountseat of seatsleaders. IfAs theIlla Socialistsfaces cannotan formuphill abattle governmentto thatsecure standsa upmajority, toit's Madridclear andthat fightsPuigdemont foris thebest interestsplaced ofto Catalonia,form thea separatistslarger willand bemore obligatedcoherent togovernment formfor a minority governmentCatalonia.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 10% chance that Spain will recognize Catalonia as a sovereign state by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0