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Snapshot 2:Mon, May 13, 2024 3:40:11 PM GMT last edited by MalcolmStanding

Spain: Socialists Eclipse Pro-Independence Parties in Catalonia Election

Spain: Socialists Eclipse Pro-Independence Parties in Catalonia Election

Image credit: [Please Replace]Javier Mostacero Carrera/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

The Socialists may have won the battle, but they will shortly lose the war due to national discontent with their appeasement policy towards Catalonian separatists. The controversial amnesty bill has been condemned as a violation of the rule of law and could damage trust in institutions for years to come. Even after this concession, Catalonian hardliners like Puigdemont are still intent on independence, even if they take of the rest of Spain with it.

The Socialist government has ushered in a new era of relations between Catalonia and the rest of Spain, with these election results being proof-positive that the pragmatic and diplomatic approach of Sanchez is the soundest. By meeting the Catalonians in the middle, nationalist fervor in the region continues to decline, as Madrid for once proves to be a receptive ear for their concerns, even in the face of condemnation of their brave amnesty law.

The Catalonian dream of independence has not died, and Illa faces an uphill battle to form a pro-union government. The delicate balance of power in the region is stacked against a Socialist government ever forming, with the separatist movement still controlling a large amount of seats. If the Socialists cannot form a government that stands up to Madrid and fights for the interests of Catalonia, the separatists will be obligated to form a minority government.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 10% chance that Spain will recognize Catalonia as a sovereign state by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0