Controversy
Status:Open
Will the ECB Raise Interest Rates at Least Once in 2026?
UNLIKELYLIKELY
Claims
Morningstar"With the ceasefire, the interest rate swap markets — derivative markets where investors trade expectations for future interest rates — have repriced significantly, with investors now predicting roughly two hikes [in 2026]."Apr 15, 2026
Carsten Brzeski"We changed our baseline scenario but not in an extreme case. In this scenario, by June we will all call the war and the energy price shock temporary and therefore would allow the ECB to stay on hold. If this is not the case in June, yes, we're in for rate hikes."Apr 08, 2026
Roic AI"Markets now fully price three quarter-point ECB rate hikes in 2026, driven by persistent inflation and energy-price volatility."Apr 15, 2026
Reuters"Financial investors now expect two to three rate hikes from the ECB this year as they see inflation above the ECB's 2% target for several years."Apr 08, 2026
European Central Bank"The latest €STR forward curve implies cumulative interest rate hikes of 50 basis points by the end of the year [2026]."Feb 15, 2026
Michael Field“The pivot from potentially cutting interest rates further in 2026 to instead increasing rates lies squarely on the Iran war."Apr 15, 2026
Christine Lagarde“If the shock gives rise to a large, though not-too-persistent, overshoot of our [inflation] target, some measured adjustment of policy could be warranted.”Mar 25, 2026
ING Economics"Generally speaking, with inflation expected at or slightly below 2%, as well as growth expected at around potential, there is no reason for the central bank to change its policy stance [interest rate] any time soon, either to the upside or downside."Dec 18, 2025
Indradip Ghosh"The European Central Bank is still expected to hold interest rates steady in 2026."Apr 08, 2026
Joel Jose"ECB policymakers are expected to discuss hikes in the coming months, with the Iran war threatening to push up inflation in the euro zone."Apr 08, 2026
Boris Vujcic“Nothing is certain [about interest rate hikes], there will be a lot of data and news by the time of our meeting in April [2026]."Apr 15, 2026
Jim Reid“In turn, that saw investors price out the likelihood of rapid rate hikes, with the probability of an ECB hike this month down from 68% before the ceasefire announcement to 32% by yesterday’s close, and a further decline to 29% this morning."Apr 15, 2026
Morgan Stanley"In the case of a very swift resolution in the Middle East...we would see some chance of a [rate] cut in 4Q26."Apr 15, 2026
Richard Carter“This is of course very difficult with such a moving picture in the Middle East and thus the outlook for interest rates is very much up in the air from here.”Mar 20, 2026
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0