Controversy

Status:Open

Will someone be criminally prosecuted for insider trading on a prediction market in 2026?

Discuss on

NoYes

Claims

Last Updated 6 days ago

Koleman Strumpf"If the issue is some important geopolitical issue ... the set of people who know that, I would argue, is pretty small. I don't think they're trading on these sites."Apr 14, 2026

Money

Jay Clayton“That’s a crime. Because it’s a prediction market doesn’t insulate you from fraud.”Apr 23, 2026

Freshfields

David Miller"We will aggressively detect, investigate, and, where appropriate, prosecute insider trading in the prediction markets."Jun 15, 2025

Cftc

Tarek Mansour“I actually do expect the DOJ to prosecute some of these cases,”Apr 15, 2026

Yahoo Finance

Michael Selig“I want to be crystal clear: to anyone who engages in fraud, manipulation, or insider trading in any of our markets: we will find you, and you will face the full force of the law."Apr 16, 2026

Nexteventhorizon

CFTC"While Kalshi’s internal enforcement program handled these matters, under the Act, the Commission has full authority to police illegal trading practices occurring on any DCM, including those described above related to prediction markets."Jun 15, 2025

Cftc

Morrison Foerster"While traditional securities law notions of insider trading may not cleanly apply to prediction market activity, DOJ enforcement is not out of the question."Mar 03, 2026

Morrison Foerster

Nicholas Biase“With regard to so-called ‘prediction markets,’ our Office has made clear that various laws, including insider trading laws, anti-money laundering laws, laws prohibiting manipulation, and various anti-fraud laws are applicable to a wide range of observed activity.”Mar 31, 2026

CNN

Freshfields"The CFTC has made clear that insider trading enforcement is a top priority."Apr 23, 2026

Freshfields

Securities Docket"The United States Department of Justice has also signaled that it will prosecute insider trading on prediction markets."Apr 14, 2026

Securities Docket

Aitan Goelman“I think it will be difficult. You can’t criminally prosecute someone if the law is vague.”Mar 31, 2026

CNN

Michael Selig"I'm not going to play speculation games with you, but I ⁠will tell you that we have a zero tolerance policy when it comes to fraud, manipulation and insider trading."Apr 20, 2026

Reuters

CFTC"We’re consistently working with our exchanges to make surveillance capabilities even stronger.”Mar 25, 2026

CNN

Norton Rose Fulbright"Participants who hold MNPI arising from a relationship of trust and confidence whether as an employee, contractor, government official or other fiduciary, and trade on that information face CFTC enforcement action, civil litigation and potentially criminal referral."Apr 23, 2026

Norton Rose Fulbright

Olivia Chalos“What we are focused on is building the best product, setting the standard on these issues and working with our relevant regulators and law enforcement to appropriately draw the lines and enforce against actual bad actors.”Apr 15, 2026

CNBC

David Miller"We will focus closely on insider trading. Insider trading is illegal under the CEA and our regulations in all our markets—including the prediction markets. It has serious consequences for market integrity and trust."Jun 15, 2025

Cftc