Controversy

+4

Status:Resolved

Will the Assad Government Collapse?

Resolution:

Yes.

Resolved on Dec 08, 2024

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Claims

Last Updated 10 months ago

Nicholas A. Heras"There is a real risk that the Assad government could lose power in Damascus."

Robert Ford"I strongly doubt that Damascus, 2024, is going to be Kabul, 2021."

Economist Intelligence Unit"[W]e still consider the wholesale collapse of the regime an unlikely prospect in the near term."

"The truth remains: this regime is dead."

James Jeffrey"There are signs all over that the Assad regime is cracking."Dec 18, 2024

Youtu

Critical Threats (AEI)"Assad faces an existential threat given the widespread collapse of regime forces."

Ben Wedeman"The Assad dynasty has survived internal and external challenges and lived to fight another day. Yet nothing, not regimes, not leaders, lasts forever."

Neil Quilliam"HTS and those fighting forces with it are about to bear down on the capital and sweep away the [Assad] regime."Dec 06, 2024

NBC

Nicholas A. Heras"If either or both of those allies [Russia and Iran] decide they can advance their interests without Assad, then his days in power are numbered."

The Institute for the Study of War"The Bashar al Assad regime faces imminent collapse."Dec 07, 2024

isw

Abbas Araghchi"The Syrian army will once again defeat these terrorists [anti-Assad militia], as it has in the past."Dec 01, 2024

ynet

Joshua LandisThe "writing is on the wall [for the Assad regime]."

The Times of India"Assad's fall is no longer an unthinkable scenario."

Jeremy Bowen"It is too soon to write the Assad regime off."

Neil Quilliam"It is highly doubtful that the regime can survive without a rapid large-scale Russian deployment."

Mazen Hassoun"The Assad regime is falling, and anyone saying otherwise is delusional."

Lina Sinjab"These developments [recent rebel offensives] won't bring about a big change that would see an end to President Assad's power."

Economist Intelligence Unit"[R]ecent developments have significantly undermined Mr Assad's prospects of extending his regime beyond the end of his current presidential term in 2028."