Controversy
Status:Resolved

Will the Assad Regime Collapse?

Resolution:

Yes.

Resolved on Dec 08, 2024

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani
The Institute for the Study of War
Abbas Araghchi
Robert Ford
Nicholas A. Heras
Joshua Landis
The Times of India
Jeremy Bowen
Mazen Hassoun
+4
UNLIKELYLIKELY

Claims

Mazen Hassoun
Mazen Hassoun"The Assad regime is falling, and anyone saying otherwise is delusional."Dec 22, 2024
Abbas Araghchi
Abbas Araghchi"The Syrian army will once again defeat these terrorists [anti-Assad militia], as it has in the past."Dec 01, 2024
Joshua Landis
Joshua LandisThe "writing is on the wall [for the Assad regime]."Dec 07, 2024
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani"The truth remains: this regime is dead."Dec 06, 2024
Neil Quilliam
Neil Quilliam"It is highly doubtful that the regime can survive without a rapid large-scale Russian deployment."Dec 06, 2024
Ben Wedeman
Ben Wedeman"The Assad dynasty has survived internal and external challenges and lived to fight another day. Yet nothing, not regimes, not leaders, lasts forever."Nov 30, 2024
Neil Quilliam
Neil Quilliam"HTS and those fighting forces with it are about to bear down on the capital and sweep away the [Assad] regime."Dec 06, 2024
Nicholas A. Heras
Nicholas A. Heras"If either or both of those allies [Russia and Iran] decide they can advance their interests without Assad, then his days in power are numbered."Dec 07, 2024
Henri J. Barkey
Henri J. Barkey"Aleppo's relatively easy fall is a sign of the Syrian regime's weakness and could also be a harbinger of its coming demise."Dec 06, 2024
The Institute for the Study of War
The Institute for the Study of War"The Bashar al Assad regime faces imminent collapse."Dec 07, 2024
Nicholas A. Heras
Nicholas A. Heras"There is a real risk that the Assad government could lose power in Damascus."Dec 07, 2024
Robert Ford
Robert Ford"I strongly doubt that Damascus, 2024, is going to be Kabul, 2021."Dec 05, 2024
The Times of India
The Times of India"Assad's fall is no longer an unthinkable scenario."Dec 06, 2024
Jeremy Bowen
Jeremy Bowen"It is too soon to write the Assad regime off."Dec 01, 2024
Critical Threats (AEI)
Critical Threats (AEI)"Assad faces an existential threat given the widespread collapse of regime forces."Dec 22, 2024
Lina Sinjab
Lina Sinjab"These developments [recent rebel offensives] won't bring about a big change that would see an end to President Assad's power."Dec 01, 2024
Economist Intelligence Unit
Economist Intelligence Unit"[R]ecent developments have significantly undermined Mr Assad's prospects of extending his regime beyond the end of his current presidential term in 2028."Dec 18, 2024
Henri J. Barkey
Henri J. Barkey"This situation will either result in the regime in Damascus collapsing or in an unstable stalemate."Dec 06, 2024
Economist Intelligence Unit
Economist Intelligence Unit"[W]e still consider the wholesale collapse of the regime an unlikely prospect in the near term."Dec 18, 2024


Sign up to our daily newsletter