Controversy
Status:Open
Will Social Security Face Benefit Cuts or Major Restructuring?
UNLIKELYLIKELY
Claims
Urban Institute"Incomes Will Fall Most among People with Lower Incomes If the Social Security Trust Fund Is Depleted."Feb 04, 2026
Kathleen Romig"After 2034, Social Security could still pay roughly 81 percent of scheduled benefits using its tax income even if policymakers took no steps to shore up the program."Feb 04, 2026
Gopi Shah Goda"Given its funding structure, if the program continues to roll forward in its current trajectory — and no action is taken by Congress — Social Security will only be able to cover 81% of promised benefits starting in 2034, according to the latest estimates of the Social Security trust funds report."Sep 22, 2025
Robert R. Johnson“Social Security reform is a politically charged issue and won’t be dealt with prior to the mid-term election.”Feb 04, 2026
Social Security"The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in 2033, the same year as last year’s estimate, with 77 percent of benefits payable at that time. "Feb 04, 2026
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget"The Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will run out of reserves by 2033 – when today’s youngest retirees turn 70 – leading to an immediate 24 percent benefit cut under the law."Mar 27, 2025
Jordan Haring"If policymakers wait until 2034, it would require a 34-percent payroll tax increase or a 26 percent across-the-board benefit cut."Dec 18, 2025
Jordan Haring"This means Social Security will be insolvent by the time today’s 58-year-olds reach the normal retirement age (NRA) of 67 and today’s youngest retirees – those retiring at age 62 – turn 71."Dec 18, 2025
Chris Orestis“That will be a lot of pressure on the system just at a time when the financial stability of the program is being threatened by demographic, economic, and political upheavals.”Feb 04, 2026
Julie Z. Weil"If Congress does not overhaul financing, automatic cuts will slash Social Security benefits by 23 percent in 2033, according to the latest trustees report."Jun 18, 2025
Charles Blahous"It is highly unlikely that even the most fiscally conservative members of Congress, let alone a congressional majority, would be willing to vote for real declines in Social Security benefit levels, which means additional revenues will be necessary."Oct 01, 2025
Cameron Huddleston"Many experts think Congress will step in before 2035 to prevent such a deep cut in benefits."Dec 15, 2025
Scott Horsley"Unless Congress acts before then, benefits for more than 60 million retirees and family members will automatically be cut by 23%."Jun 18, 2025
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget"Social Security's retirement trust fund will be insolvent in just seven years – by late 2032 – at which point benefits will be cut automatically by 24 percent across the board if nothing is done to prevent it."Aug 21, 2025
LegalNotLegal"Without intervention, benefit reductions of up to 25% could occur, but many believe Congress will act before that happens. "Mar 12, 2025
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget"We estimate that this would be equal to an $18,100 annual benefit cut for a dual-earning couple retiring at the start of 2033 – shortly after trust fund insolvency."Jul 29, 2025
Brookings Institution"The major Republican plans would restore solvency entirely by reducing benefits."Feb 11, 2025
Emerson Sprick"Unless Congress acts, current and future beneficiaries alike will see their benefits cut by 23%."Feb 04, 2026
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget"In just eight years, all retired beneficiaries, regardless of age or need, will face an across-the-board 23 percent benefit cut unless necessary reforms are enacted."Jun 18, 2025
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0