Controversy
UN News
Nature
PHYS
Rystad Energy
Hannah Ritchie
Corinne Le Quéré
Glen Peters
Bill Hare
Adrian Raftery
Climate Analytics
+5
Status:Open

Will Global Emissions Peak Before 2030?

UNLIKELYLIKELY

Claims

Hannah Ritchie
Hannah Ritchie"A[n emissions] peak is approaching."Nov 13, 2025
Glen Peters
Glen Peters“It is 10 years since the Paris Agreement was negotiated, and despite progress on many fronts, fossil CO2 emissions continue their relentless rise."Nov 10, 2025
UN News
UN News"Full implementation of these NDCs could reduce emissions by 17 per cent below 2019 levels, by 2035, with a projected peak before 2030."Oct 30, 2025
Adrian Raftery
Adrian Raftery"There’s a 22% chance emissions will peak in 2025, and a 90% chance it will occur by 2045. "Nov 04, 2025
Nature
Nature"Globally, greenhouse-gas emissions — which include methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases as well as carbon dioxide — are still rising. But there are signs they will peak around 2030, and some researchers argue that carbon dioxide emissions might have already begun to decline."Nov 13, 2025
New Atlas
New Atlas"Efforts to slow deforestation – including in the mighty carbon sink that is the Amazon rainforest – have helped, but most countries will have to make major adjustments to their energy production and consumption practices over the coming years."Nov 14, 2025
Carbon Brief
Carbon Brief"Under current climate policies, annual emissions from G20 countries will drop to 35GtCO2 by 2030 and 33Gt by 2035. "Nov 05, 2025
Corinne Le Quéré
Corinne Le Quéré"Progress is still much too fragile to translate into the sustained decreases in global emissions needed to tackle climate change. "Nov 10, 2025
Bill Hare
Bill Hare“We don’t [project] the global inflection point until around 2030, unfortunately, but it does look like emissions are flattening off.”Nov 14, 2025
PHYS
PHYS"If their plans are implemented, the group of countries' emissions would peak before 2030 and then fall sharply after 2035, and most of the nations would reach net zero by 2050—all necessary steps to avoid dangerous warming."Jan 23, 2026
Rystad Energy
Rystad Energy"Global CO2 emissions are expected to peak around 2026, driven by rapid renewable deployment in power and electric vehicle adoption in transport."Jan 07, 2026
Climate Analytics
Climate Analytics"We find there is a 70% chance that emissions start falling in 2024 if current clean technology growth trends continue and some progress is made to cut non-CO2 emissions."
Lauri Myllyvirta
Lauri Myllyvirta“In that sense, when China peaks, it’s likely the world will at least plateau.”Jan 23, 2026
Pierre Friedlingstein
Pierre Friedlingstein“With CO2 emissions still increasing, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer plausible.”Nov 10, 2025


© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0