US Presidential Election 2024 Overview

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The Facts

  • OVERVIEW: On Nov. 5, US voters will cast their votes for the next president. The major candidates are Donald Trump (the Republican nominee) and Kamala Harris (the Democratic nominee). Other candidates include Jill Stein (Green Party), Chase Oliver (Libertarian), and Cornel West (independent). Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (independent) suspended his campaign in August and endorsed Trump, though he will remain on the ballot in some states. As a running mate, Trump selected JD Vance, RFK Jr. chose Nicole Shanahan, and Harris picked Tim Walz. Pres. Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July 2024 and endorsed Harris.

  • QUALIFICATIONS: Article II of the US Constitution outlines three qualifications to hold the office of the presidency: being a natural-born US citizen who is at least 35 years old and has resided in the US for at least 14 years. Voters in some states had petitioned courts claiming that the 14th Amendment disqualified Trump from holding the presidency, alleging the Jan. 6 riot constituted an insurrection supported by Trump. SCOTUS rejected this in Trump v. Anderson.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

This election is perhaps the most pivotal in American history, as a convicted felon and insurrectionist is out to reclaim the presidency. His agenda will be even more extreme than in his first term, as he exploits popular discontent to lead the country down a dark and undemocratic path. At the ballot box, voters must support the candidate promising positive change, as Kamala Harris has a real plan to unite the country and finish the impressive work that Pres. Biden started on issues such as the economy and foreign policy.

Republican narrative

Once the hysteria from the liberal media is put aside, the choice for America is clear: four more years of a weaker and poorer America under the Democrats or four years of a president who left the country better than he found it. The facts don't lie: America was richer, safer, and freer under Trump, as much as it might displease his most vocal haters. The Democrats have failed at home and abroad, and when the chips are down voters will elect Trump, the man who has proven himself to be a competent and courageous leader.

Establishment-critical narrative

America is tired of the status quo from the two-party system, which thrives on stoking fear and division in the population. As the media descends into tabloid-level negative coverage of the candidates, the real issues facing this country — such as war, corruption, and our crumbling infrastructure — are ignored. Nearly half of all voters consider themselves independent and are unrepresented by the Democrat-GOP duopoly. Third party candidates, such as RFK Jr., will continue to shift the conversation, with or without the permission of the establishment.


Metaculus Prediction


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