US Election Issue: Ukraine

Above: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivers remarks at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, as leaders from all member NATO states gather for the 75th NATO Summit on July 9, 2024 in Washington, DC. Image copyright: Bonnie Cash/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • OVERVIEW: On Feb. 24, 2022, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine, drastically escalating the ongoing conflict rooted in the 2014 ousting of Ukrainian Pres. Viktor Yanukovych, and Russia's subsequent annexation of Crimea. The Biden admin. condemned Russia's actions as "premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified," and has since provided $107B in direct aid to Ukraine, taken part in nearly 40 rounds of sanctions against Russia, and signed a 10-year Bilateral Security Agreement with Kyiv.

  • CURRENT STATE: Russia currently occupies Crimea (since 2014), as well as areas in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolayiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions, while Ukraine occupies part of Russia's Kursk region. According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) face "obstacles to sustaining momentum." The CRS also notes that Ukraine’s continued ability to fight the war has come into question. Some observers, it states, argue that the UAF may experience "a deteriorating situation without sustained Western security assistance," whilst others acknowledge that challenges exist for Ukraine regardless.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Trump and JD Vance's push to reduce American influence in Europe, prioritizing a quick agreement over ensuring sustainable peace, is but one of many foreign policy moves that will have severe global ramifications. American isolationism will only embolden Putin and other right-wing populists to further undermine democracy. The GOP cannot be trusted to safeguard Ukraine's territorial integrity or US interests in Europe.

Republican narrative

Trump and the GOP are the victims of a coordinated media attack, with any attempts to question the financial burden on American taxpayers for Ukraine dismissed as pro-Kremlin propaganda by White House allies. In true autocratic fashion, the liberal left continues to censor and defame all those advocating for peace through an alternative, America-first solution. It's time to end endless wars and prioritize American interests.

Pro-establishment narrative

Putin's invasion of Ukraine was an egregious violation of international law, and supporting Ukraine against this unprovoked Russian aggression is both a moral obligation and a geostrategic necessity. The US and Europe cannot afford to allow Russia to dominate Ukraine or undermine its sovereignty. This war is about more than just preserving Ukrainian democracy — it's about the future of a strong and united Europe.

Establishment-critical narrative

The West provoked the invasion by continuously ignoring Russia's legitimate security concerns and breaking their promise not to expand NATO eastwards. Western political elites are now trying to rewrite history and compel the Ukrainian people to continue fighting an unwinnable war. The US, EU, and NATO's refusal to pursue peace and end their proxy war against a weakened Moscow shows that Ukraine is nothing but a sacrificial pawn in their imperial pursuits.


Metaculus Prediction



Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

More neutral establishment stance articles