The Facts

  • OVERVIEW: The Second Amendment of the US Constitution enshrines the right to "keep and bear arms." According to the latest Small Arms Survey data, the US had 393M civilian-owned guns in 2017, with more recent estimates sitting at closer to 500M. The FBI reported about 411.5M federal and state firearm background checks from 1998-2021, with 38.9M in 2021 alone. 153.5K transferrals were denied. According to the University of Chicago, 13M guns were on average sold annually from 2010-2019.

  • CURRENT STATE: Gun ownership data is largely based on self-reports. As of July 2024, 42% of adults live in a household with a gun, and 32% own one personally, according to Pew Research. As of 2019, the American Academy of Political and Social Science found that 44% of owned firearms were handguns and 55% were long guns. The CDC reported over 48K firearm-related deaths in 2022, with more than 50% from suicides and over 40% from homicides.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Kamala Harris has the right approach to guns. Not only would she push for a popular assault weapons ban, but she'd also invest billions in school safety and mental health programs. She envisions a future where students will no longer need post-traumatic stress counseling after weapons of war are removed from the streets and gun purchase loopholes are closed. High-powered guns threaten all American children, and Harris brings a sensible and popular approach to this issue.

Republican narrative

Democrats and liberal elites continue preaching about gun bans from behind their heavily armed bodyguards and fortified estates. If they truly cared about protecting children from dangerous criminals, they wouldn't support policies that release offenders back onto the streets. Republicans seek to enforce existing gun laws, strengthen criminal justice systems, and not violate constitutional Second Amendment rights. Donald Trump will ensure that these rights are preserved.


Metaculus Prediction


Public figures in this story


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