Ukraine Alleges Russia Fired Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

Above: Russian troops stand next to truck-mounted Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missiles as they rehearse for the Victory Day parade in Moscow's Red Square in 2008. Image copyright: Verity

The Facts

  • Ukraine alleged that Russia, for the first time in the war, fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at the city of Dnipro on Thursday.

  • Sources who spoke to the Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda claimed the weapon used was an RS-26 Rubezh, adding that it was fired alongside eight traditional missiles — six of which were said to be shot down — without specifying what happened to the ICBM.


The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

For the first time in the war, Russia has deployed an intercontinental ballistic missile over Ukraine. This is extremely significant as these weapons are capable of carrying nuclear-capable warheads.

Pro-establishment narrative

The weapon deployed by Russia did not appear to be an intercontinental ballistic missile, but rather a traditional missile with a much shorter range.


Metaculus Prediction


Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO