Tunisia: Saied Expected to Win Reelection
The Facts
Tunisian Pres. Kais Saied is reportedly expected to win reelection with 89.2% of the vote, with the Independent High Authority for Elections of Tunisia reporting there was a 27.7% voter turnout. Tunisia has a population of about 12M, including roughly 9.7M eligible voters.
The voter turnout was low compared to the 45% participation seen in Saied's first election in 2019, the lowest recorded since the 2011 ousting of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. This year, it's reported that 58% of voters were men and 65% were aged 36-60.
The Spin
Narrative A
With every meaningful opposition candidate either in jail or on house arrest, as well as every judge stacked in his favor, Pres. Saied appears to have solidified his place as Tunisia's dictator. It was just ten years ago that the Arab Spring led to optimism among Tunisians, but the last remnants of hope for democracy have been lost, resulting in most of the country staying home on election day.
Narrative B
Despite critiques surrounding low voter turnout, this year's 28% participation is much higher than the 11% seen during the last legislative elections. It's also important to note that Saied still enjoys strong support from a significant portion of the population, particularly those who regard him as an enemy of the old guard and foreign influence.