Russia: Ukrainian Strike on Bakery Kills at Least 28

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The Facts

  • Moscow announced on Sunday that alleged Ukrainian shelling on a crowded bakery in the Russia-occupied city of Lysychansk in eastern Ukraine on Saturday had killed at least 28 people.

  • According to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kyiv struck the building using the US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System.


The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Kyiv has committed a war crime by deliberately targeting civilians on a busy weekend to maximize casualties. The West must stop supplying Ukraine with deadly weapons, as they are clearly being used for unjustified attacks. Saturday's brutal strike was a desperate act of terrorism by Ukraine after its much-hyped counter-offensive failed to make any significant dent in fortified Russian lines.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Ukraine is working hard to break through Russia's defenses on the battlefield, including through repeated attacks and by weakening its Black Sea Fleet. It's feasible Moscow could be faking attacks on civilians in occupied territories so as to justify escalating its assault, seizing the symbols of Ukrainian resistance, and bolstering an anti-Kyiv narrative. The West should do more to help Ukrainian forces with the fight for sovereignty and peace that lies ahead.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO