UN Report: World on Track for up to +3.1°C of Warming by 2100

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Above: A wildfire approaches houses in the village of And Loutro, south of Athens, on Sept. 30, 2024. Image copyright: VALERIE GACHE/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • According to a UN Environment Program (UNEP) report released on Thursday, failure to achieve the Paris Agreement's goals will result in global warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius above baseline by the end of the century.

  • Inger Andersen, the UNEP executive director, warned that without a "massive increase in ambition" in the next round of climate pledges, "1.5 C will be dead within a few years and 2 C will take its place in the intensive care unit."

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The Spin

Narrative A

The record-breaking temperatures are a clear sign that urgent action is needed to address climate change. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat events demonstrate the immediate impacts of global warming. Without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, these devastating consequences will only worsen for humanity and the planet.

Narrative B

While 2023 was exceptionally hot, it's essential to consider long-term climate trends rather than focusing on individual records. Natural variability plays a role in temperature fluctuations, and more data is needed to fully understand the implications of these recent heat events. The climate system is complex, and caution should be exercised when attributing specific weather events to climate change.

Metaculus Prediction