Moldova: President Sandu Wins Second Term

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The Facts

  • Moldova's pro-EU incumbent Pres. Maia Sandu claimed victory in Sunday's presidential election, defeating Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general backed by the traditionally pro-Russian Socialist Party.

  • With nearly all ballots counted in the runoff election, Sandu secured around 55% of the vote, while Stoianoglo received approximately 45%, according to the Central Electoral Commission.


The Spin

Narrative A

This marks a pivotal moment in the decades-long struggle between Russia and the EU over Moldova's geopolitical alignment. Despite massive election interference by Russia, Moldovans had their voices heard and once again proved that nothing can stand in the way of the electorate's power when they vote.

Narrative B

Claims about Russian election interference have been highly exaggerated. All this election proves is that there's deep polarization in Moldova between the country's urban and rural voters. Sandu will ignore the desire of many voters who want her to renew relations with Moscow, so geopolitical tensions will continue to rise.


Metaculus Prediction